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大气科学  2003 

使用不同的天气尺度初值作强对流暴雨预报的差别及其原因

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2003.02.15

Keywords: 暴雨,数值模拟,中尺度初值

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Abstract:

分别用暴雨开始前和暴雨刚开始两个探空时次的天气尺度初值场作1982年6月19~20日鄂东特大暴雨过程的中尺度模拟预报.前者相当成功,后者完全失败.探究其原因说明中尺度数值预报可以用天气尺度初始场的一个重要条件是模式初始时刻在关注的区域及其附近不存在即将造成或已经造成强降水的强中尺度扰动.如若不然,则可能由于模式起转(Spinup)的延误,实际存在的中尺度扰动对天气尺度变化的强大反馈作用不能体现,会使天气尺度的预报从一开始就显著歧离实际,其带来的结果不是中尺度时、空细节的预报误差,而是全区域性的预报失败.这个试验还进一步证实伴随暴雨的强非绝热反馈作用是暖切变型梅雨锋发展和准静止持续乃至周边区域形势维持的最重要的直接因子.

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