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大气科学  2006 

长江中下游夏季降水异常变化与若干强迫因子的关系

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.02.03

Keywords: 长江中下游夏季降水,滑动相关,年代际尺度因子,年际尺度因子,因子潜在结构

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Abstract:

首先,利用三次样条函数方法对1905~2000年长江中下游夏季降水量和太阳黑子、地球自转速率、赤道东太平洋海温和北极涛动等强迫因子序列进行年代际和年际尺度的分离,并分析了它们年代际尺度的位相变化特征.然后,使用30年滑动相关的方法,分析了长江中下游夏季降水量与上述各因子之间的相关随时间的变化.最后,利用旋转因子分析方法,对年代际及年际尺度因子的潜在结构对长江中下游夏季降水的影响进行了研究.结果表明,长江中下游夏季降水量和强迫因子序列均存在显著的年代际变化特征,它们之间的相关系数随时间变化呈现显著的阶段性,

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