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大气科学  2007 

近50年来夏季西风指数变化与中国夏季降水的关系

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2007.04.16

Keywords: 雨带类型,西风指数,显著性关键区,相关场,风场关键区

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Abstract:

使用1951~2002年夏季500hPa高度月平均格点资料,运用多变量方差分析的方法,找到夏季不同雨带类型对应的西风指数变化关键区,再对关键区西风指数与夏季160个站的降水进行相关分析,找到降水显著高相关区。最后,采用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,通过合成风场检验的方法,找到高低西风指数年对应的风场显著差异区以及不同雨带类型对应的风场显著差异区,对高低西风指数和正常年西风指数各自对应的环流场以及三种类型雨带对应的环流场进行比较。研究发现,夏季西风指数差异最大的关键区在(35?N~55?N,110?E~140?E)。在关键区内,I类雨带对应高指数环流,II类雨带对应多年平均环流形式,III类雨带对应低指数环流。而降水场上的高相关区在长江和江南一带,为负相关。高低指数年的u、v风场显著性关键区和I、III类雨带的u、v风场的显著性关键区基本相同,经度在100?E~130?E,纬度分别位于35?N~55?N(A关键区)和25?N~30?N(B关键区)。高指数年对应I类雨带,在关键区A南风加强,在关键区B东风加强。低指数年对应III类雨带,在关键区A东北风加强,在关键区B西风加强。而多年平均环流形式对应II类雨带,A、B两个关键区主要是西风控制。归结原因是由于西风带的南进北退导致冷空气南下北上的路径、强度发生变化,从而影响夏季雨带的分布。

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