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大气科学  2007 

集合预报中动态调整的增长模繁殖及其对自由繁殖的改进

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2007.03.16

Keywords: 增长模繁殖,调整,初始扰动,集合预报

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Abstract:

用增长模繁殖(BGM)法产生集合预报初始扰动的过程中,对增长模适时的进行调整是有必要的。介绍了动态调整的方法,利用T63L9全球谱模式,通过数值试验考察了在繁殖过程中采用动态调整时增长模的增长和饱和情况,并与自由繁殖试验作了相应的比较。结果表明:动态调整情况下,各层扰动的增长率可以达到一个比较大的数值;在形态饱和方面,动态调整能在很大程度上克服自由繁殖时低层扰动饱和时间滞后的缺陷;综合考虑,动态调整下扰动饱和时间可比自由繁殖缩短1天以上,且饱和特征更加明显。

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