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大气科学  2011 

北大西洋涛动指数变化与北半球冬季阻塞活动

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.02.11

Keywords: 北大西洋涛动指数,阻塞活动特征,变化趋势

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Abstract:

线性回归分析表明北大西洋涛动(NAO)主要与大西洋、欧洲及乌拉尔山地区阻塞的频率和强度的变化存在显著相关关系。在NAO负位相时期阻塞活动在大西洋地区较为频繁且强度较强,正位相时期大西洋地区阻塞活动减少,强度减弱,而欧洲阻塞加强,频率增加,同时乌拉尔山地区的阻塞活动也显著减少。NAO正指数的增强和减弱对应于大西洋和欧洲阻塞活动的不同变化。局地阻塞活动频率分布显示:在NAO正指数增强的阶段,大西洋的阻塞活动受到明显抑制而欧洲大陆阻塞活动明显增加,活动中心向欧洲大陆偏移;但在NAO正指数减弱的阶段,阻塞活动中心向大西洋一侧移动。区域性阻塞的逐年变化表现为:大西洋和乌拉尔地区阻塞在NAO指数增强的阶段呈下降趋势,欧洲阻塞呈增加的趋势;在NAO指数减弱的阶段大西洋阻塞为弱的上升趋势,欧洲和乌拉尔地区阻塞呈下降趋势。中纬度涡旋活动的强弱和位置对NAO位相的变化起到重要作用。大西洋风暴活动向东加强有利于NAO趋于正位相,对应于欧洲大陆阻塞发生频率增加;但其进一步加强可使大西洋阻塞活动增加。

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