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大气科学  2012 

太阳活动11年周期对ENSO事件海温异常演变和东亚降水的影响

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11162

Keywords: 太阳活动,海温演变,ENSO,东亚降水,大气环流异常

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Abstract:

本文利用美国NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、海温、降水和反映太阳活动强弱的太阳10.7cm射电流量资料,研究了1952~2010年太阳活动11年周期对ENSO年海温异常演变以及与之相联系的东亚降水的影响,在此基础上着重分析了ENSO发展期秋季东亚地区降水异常对太阳射电流量高(HS)/低(LS)的不同响应以及相关的物理过程.对海温的分析结果表明,HS(LS)年ENSO发展期各阶段赤道东太平洋以及热带西太平洋的海温异常的强度和范围都偏小(大),且赤道东太平洋的正相关在次年春夏季衰减缓慢(迅速).特别是在ENSO发展期秋季,随着赤道东太平洋海温的增暖,HS(LS)年印度洋海温无(有)明显升高,并在随后的ENSO盛期印度洋海温正异常明显偏弱(偏强).针对ENSO与东亚地区降水异常的研究发现,ENSO对我国降水的显著影响主要出现在发展期的秋季和衰减期的春季.若考虑太阳射电流量高、低不同年,与ENSO相联系的东亚降水异常的差异则主要出现在ENSO发展期的秋季.HS年ENSO发展期秋季我国大部分地区的降水异常信号较弱;而LS年时我国长江以南和长江以北的反向降水变化就非常显著.进一步分析表明,这种差别的原因在于对流层低层控制南、北方降水异常的两个重要环流系统——位于菲律宾附近的反气旋和我国华北北部的气旋的强度在太阳射电流量高、低不同年有显著差异.LS年南海及菲律宾地区附近出现的反气旋式环流异常偏强,加强了我国南方地区的水汽供应;而位于华北北部的气旋式环流异常也偏强,其西侧的偏北风造成长江以北地区的降水负异常.与此相反,HS年热带西太平洋反气旋和位于我国北方的气旋异常同时偏弱,造成我国大部分地区的降水异常偏弱且不显著.ENSO发展期秋季东亚大气环流对太阳射电流量高、低的不同响应可能是由于太阳活动对热带海温的影响所致,HS(LS)年时会在太平洋强迫出类LaNi?a(ElNi?o)的海温异常,导致在热带中东太平洋上升并在热带西太平洋下沉的异常Walker环流明显偏弱(偏强).这样与HS年相比较,LS年在热带西太平洋的低层辐散就更强,热源导致的反气旋环流也就更强.

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