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大气科学  2013 

东亚夏季风和中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的模拟

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12130

Keywords: 年代际变化,东亚夏季风,夏季降水,太平洋年代际振荡

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Abstract:

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的第四代大气环流模式模拟了1970年代末东亚夏季风和相关的中国东部夏季降水年代际变化。结果表明,在给定的观测海温强迫下,模式能模拟出东亚夏季风的年代际减弱及相关的环流场变化,包括东亚沿海的偏北风异常以及西太平洋副高的形态变化,模式还较好再现了中国东部夏季降水的雨型变化,即长江流域降水偏多,而华北和华南偏少,但位置略偏南。基于奇异值分解(SVD)的分析表明,热带海洋变暖是这次东亚夏季风的年代际减弱的主要因素,这与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)在1970年代末期的位相转变有关。此外,模式还较好模拟了长江流域的变冷趋势,进而减弱了海陆温差,使东亚夏季风减弱。

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