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中国大陆及周缘地震目录完整性统计分析

DOI: 10.6038/cjg20140907, PP. 2802-2812

Keywords: 地震目录,完整性分析,中国大陆

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Abstract:

地震目录资料是进行地震预测、地震危险性分析、地震活动性研究等地震学研究的基础资料.对地震目录资料的完整性可靠性分析是地震学研究的基础工作之一.近几十年来我国积累的大量的仪器地震记录,历史地震也在不断更新,为地震活动性研究提供了更为丰富的样本,因此有必要对新的地震目录进行完整性分析.本文采用了新的统计方法对我国仪器记录地震目录和历史破坏性地震目录进行了完整性分析.结果表明,对于仪器记录地震目录(M≥3.0)我国东部地区1975年后基本完整,西部地区1980年后基本完整.对于历史地震目录(M≥5.0),东部地区1500年后基本完整,西部地区1950年后基本完整.考虑到华北地震区历史破坏性地震(M≥43/4)活动的时间非平稳性,我们采用突变点分析法研究了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录的时间特征,得到了华北地震区地震活动周期性变化的突变点位置,并揭示了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录完整起始时间约为公元1500年前后.

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