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微震多维信息识别与冲击矿压时空预测——以河南义马跃进煤矿为例

DOI: 10.6038/cjg20140827, PP. 2687-2700

Keywords: 冲击矿压,微震多维信息,异常分级判据,综合异常指数,时空预测

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Abstract:

随着煤炭开采深度和强度的增大,冲击矿压已成为煤矿普遍的安全问题.具体针对煤矿冲击矿压的时空预测难题,进一步发展了微震多维信息的时空预测方法:首先,构建微震多维信息识别指标体系,包括优选的频次指标和新提出的震源集中程度、最大应力和总应力当量指标;其次,基于归一化方法、异常分级判别准则和时空统计滑移模型,分别获得各指标的时序曲线和空间云图;然后,采用R值评分法评估和检验各指标的预测效能,并依此赋予各指标权重;最后,应用综合异常指数方法,实时定量分析监测区域的冲击险状态、具体危险区域及等级.预测实例表明,该方法综合考虑了微震时、空、强要素,预测效能较高,并能从时序上定量描述监测区域的冲击危险状态,空间上定量反映监测时段内的冲击危险区域及等级,现场中指导实施防冲措施,在一定程度上解决了现场防冲措施实施的盲目性,从而进一步发展了煤矿冲击矿压的时空监测预报方法.

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