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基于汶川主震及余震的预警参数与震级相关性研究

DOI: 10.6038/cjg20131016, PP. 3404-3415

Keywords: 地震预警,地震震级,Pd方法,速度平方积分,τc方法,τp方法

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Abstract:

地震预警作为一种能够有效减轻地震灾害的手段已经被世界上越来越多的国家和地区所研究,并在实际应用中取得了显著的减灾实效.利用汶川主震及其余震P波和S波初期部分的信息,研究了最终地震震级与4个预警参数的相关性.考察的4个参数是位移幅值(Pd)、速度平方积分(IV2)、P波卓越周期和特征周期(τp和τc).使用的数据集时间跨度从2008年5月12日至2008年10月4日,共计218次震级大于等于4级的地震事件,包括主震8.0、最大余震6.5和7次大于等于6.0级的事件.Pd、IV2和τc在震级小于等于6.5级时与最终震级具有较好的相关性,没有出现震级饱和现象,验证了前人的统计结果.但是在估算主震震级时,都存在不同程度的低估现象,IV2参数尤其明显.另外,Pd和IV2统计曲线在M6级附近存在着一个斜率变化,并且Pd结果与前人统计结果相差较大.τp的统计结果表明该参数不适合应用到汶川地区的地震预警系统中.

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