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宇宙线小波分析在大地磁暴预报中的应用

DOI: 10.6038/cjg20150703, PP. 2242-2249

Keywords: 宇宙线,小波分析,大地磁暴,预报

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Abstract:

利用Morlet小波变换方法对北京宇宙线台站的地面宇宙线强度在地磁暴前后的变化特征进行分析,得到:1)在平静期,北京宇宙线数据存在准24h周期性的特征,且通过分析周期为12h的Morlet小波"模",发现值稳定,且小于0.6;2)以90天为时间窗口,对2004年7月地磁暴前后的小波频谱变化进行详细分析,发现当发生大地磁暴时,宇宙线的静日准24h周期被打破,其他周期的波动开始增强.进一步研究发现,周期12h的波动在大地磁暴数小时到1天左右会出现显著增强,这一现象在2001、2002和2004年期间的大地磁暴前得到验证.3)Morlet小波"模"数据的急速增大是发生地磁暴的先兆特征,当小波模变化达到一定的阈值就可能发生大磁暴.本文分析了周期为12h时小波的模数据,对强地磁暴事件进行统计,选定阈值0.6,并通过2003年的6次大地磁暴进行预报验证,结果表明该方法不仅能够对大地磁暴事件进行预报,而且提前量满足预报需求,为基于宇宙线实测数据预报地磁暴方法提供了重要基础.

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