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2015年4月25日尼泊尔Mw7.8地震孕育过程分析与震后趋势研判

DOI: 10.6038/cjg20150533, PP. 1827-1833

Keywords: 伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区,尼泊尔Mw7.8地震,地震孕育周期,锁固段,震后趋势

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Abstract:

基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及板间地震区划分原则,划分了伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了该地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区至少已经历三个完整的孕育周期,是一个Mw8.3~8.6地震危险区;2015年4月25日尼泊尔Mw7.8地震,是该区当前孕育周期第三锁固段损伤累积至峰值强度点时发生的一次标志性大震事件;2015年5月12日尼泊尔Mw7.3地震发生后,该地震区再次处于临界状态,将发生Mw8.0~8.2地震.

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