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含能材料  2012 

基于混合先验分布的弹射弹Bayes可靠性估计

Keywords: 军事化学与烟火技术,弹射弹,可靠性,混合Beta分布,继承因子,后验分布

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Abstract:

建立了一种综合利用单元试验数据和系统试验数据的弹射弹Bayes可靠性评估方法。该方法通过建立基于继承因子的混合Beta先验分布,结合弹射弹试验数据确定后验分布,最后通过后验分布推断弹射弹可靠性。采用该方法及GJB376-1987方法和传统贝叶斯方法,对某型弹射弹可靠性进行了评估。结果表明,在置信水平0.90情况下,三种方法可靠度评估结果分别为0.9922,0.978,0.996。表明本文方法是有效的,在相同的现场试验情况下,评估结果比经典统计方法更合理。

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