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技术不确定条件下R&D投资决策的期权博弈模型

Keywords: R&, D投资, 期权博弈, 价值函数, 投资临界值, 均衡？？

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Abstract:

为了分析R&D投资的不确定性、灵活性和竞争因素对投资决策的影响，将博弈论纳入实物期权方法的分析框架，在技术不确定环境下，构造研发能力和投资成本均不对称的双寡头垄断期权博弈模型，得到企业作为跟随者、领先者和同时投资者的价值函数，分析研发能力对投资临界值的影响，讨论了可能投资均衡策略.结果表明:研发能力对跟随者投资临界值影响显著，增强自身研发能力将减小投资临界值，而竞争者的研发能力增强会增加投资临界值，并且研发能力差别较大时将发生序贯均衡.

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