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基于样本累积响应面法的防波堤可靠度分析

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-7043.201403057

Keywords: 可靠度分析, 响应面法, 样本累积, 防波堤, 边坡稳定性

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Abstract:

针对传统响应面法中每次迭代均在当前验算点附近抽取新的样本构造响应面,而摒弃之前所有样本信息导致计算效率较差的不足,提出了响应面构造的改进方法―样本累积法。采用新样本和本次迭代以前所有的样本一起来构造响应面,从而最大程度地利用已有样本点的信息,避免了可靠度迭代陷入局部极值或往复震荡难以收敛的问题,提高了计算效率。如果仅选择离极限状态曲面较近的样本点参与累积和响应面的构造,可以进一步提高计算效率。通过算例验证了样本累积法的准确性和计算效率。最后采用改进方法分析了某核电工程防波堤的稳定可靠性, 结果表明:地震荷载作用下,防波堤有一定的失效概率;当开山石堤身底部有淤泥夹层,结构的失效概率会变得很大,这种情况对核电工程的正常运行是非常不利的,值得工程人员重视。

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