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海洋通报  2011 

近50年来长江入海径流量对太平洋年代际震荡变化的响应

DOI: 10.11840/j.issn.1001-6392.2011.5.016, PP. 572-577

Keywords: PDO,EMD,径流量,长江

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Abstract:

太平洋年代际震荡(PacificDecadalOscillation)是类似于ENSO型的具有年代际时间尺度变化的太平洋气候变率。PDO既对长期的气候变化趋势产生扰动,又会对年际变化事件(如ENSO)产生重要影响,可使ENSO事件的频率和强度改变,以致影响到ENSO和季风的关系。通过对百年来的PDO数据进行HHT分析,得到8个IMF和1个趋势项,这表明PDO存在显著的15a、30a、60a的年代际变化,并且还有准2a、6a的年际波动。同时对近50年来的长江入海月均径流量序列也进行HHT分析,得到7个IMF和1个趋势项,结果表明长江入海月均径流量序列存在有明显的季节变化,显著的准2a、4a、8a的年际变率,和显著的16a、22a的年代际变率。并且对近50年来的长江入海月均径流量序列和PDO序列的EMD分量进行相关性分析,分析得知两者在年代际变化中有较高的相关性,这表明在长时间尺度的年代际变化中PDO对长江入海径流有着显著地影响。

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