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长江河口径流量与海平面上升对气候变化及人类活动的响应~(英)

Keywords: 长江河口,气候变化,人类活动,径流量,海平面上升

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Abstract:

气候变化和人类活动所导致的径流量变化和海平面上升都是数值模式中重要的边界条件.因此,为了得到合适的边界条件,本文给出~2030、2050~和~2100~年气候变化和人类活动影响下长江径流量和海平面上升的变化情况.考虑到三峡工程于~2003~年坝体合拢,利用大通站~1865~至~2002~年的历史径流量资料,发现利用资料外推获得的径流量变化率与气候模型所得结果近似,得到在~2030、2050~和~2100~年~1、2月平均径流量在气候变化影响下分别为~12\,348、12~683~~13~522.在过去~20~年,长江河口绝对海平面上升率约为~2.5.根据海平面变化资料分析预报模型,2012~年至~2030、2050~和~2100~年绝对海平面分别上升~49.1、148.1~和~395.6mm.长江河口的盐水入侵数值模拟需考虑三峡水库和南水北调对入海径流量的影响.同时,相对海平面变化需要考虑地壳下沉和地基沉降.本文给出各个预估时期上述内容的量值.

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