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一个用于全球气候变化研究的海洋大气环流耦合模式Ⅱ.模式气候漂移和增强温室效应的初步分析

, PP. 26-40

Keywords: 海洋耦合模式,全球气候变化

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Abstract:

着重分析和讨论全球大气,海洋-海冰耦合环流模式的两个长时间数值积分试验──130年控制试验和95年敏感性试验(增强温室效应试验),尤其是控制试验中的气候漂移现象以及与此相关的敏感性试验中增援信号的提取问题。在控制试验中,大气二氧化碳浓度维持当前的气候值不变;而在敏感性试验中,大气二氧化碳浓度开始时以1%的速率等比增加,它在积分至70年且其值已达初始值的二倍后便不再变化。分析结果表明,尽管这个耦合模式的长时期积分中存在着明显的气候漂移,但敏感性试验给出的全球增暖的基本特征在物理上是合理的;这个耦合模式产生气候漂移的主要源地是在高纬度海洋的冰水交界区,且初步的热收支估算揭示它可能与冰-水交界区的耦合方案有关。本文最后在对控制试验和敏感性试验的环流型式的时间演变进行相关分析的基础上给出了有关全球增暖幅度的3种估计,同时指出;尽管全球增暖的空间分布不可避免地要受到模式气候漂移的影响,但这种影响的大部分在计算气温年较差的变化时却可以被自动扣除。

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