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单纯形投影算子理论及在资料分析中的应用Ⅱ.在表层水温和青岛气温预测中的应用

, PP. 21-26

Keywords: 单纯形投影算子,相关维数嵌入维数

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Abstract:

应用相空间理论对赤道单站日表层水温及青岛月平均气温的9点滑动平均资料进行了分析,结果表明:青岛月平均气温的9点滑动平均的相关维数和嵌入维数分别为5.83、8,当反厄尔尼诺发生时赤道日SST的相关维和嵌入维数分别为3.93、11,当厄尔尼诺发生时其相关维数和嵌入维数分别为4.37、9.揭示了无论是厄尔尼诺还是反厄尔尼诺发生赤道日SST都具有混沌特征,并且厄尔尼诺发生其内部结构复杂化使得支撑奇怪吸引子的雏数增加,而嵌入维数减少.这种现象是由于表层水温所隐含非线性作用显着增强所导致.根据以上分析结果应用单纯形投影算子(simplexprojectionoperator)预测方法对赤道单站日SST和青岛月平均气温的9点滑动平均资料进行了预测,其前8点最大相对误差分别为0.42%,7.4%.

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