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基于Schaefer模型的东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源评估和管理

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2015.10.005

Keywords: 东南太平洋 茎柔鱼 资源评估 管理

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Abstract:

东南太平洋茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)是世界范围内最重要的经济头足类之一,也是我国鱿钓渔船的重要捕捞对象。本文根据2003—2012年中国大陆的渔业数据和FAO统计的东南太平洋茎柔鱼产量数据,利用Schaefer模型,基于贝叶斯统计方法,分基准方案和敏感性分析方案对东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源进行评估,并对其管理策略做了风险分析。结果表明,年渔获量和CPUE 数据为贝叶斯资源评估模型提供了足够多的信息。2003—2012年捕捞死亡率低于目标参考点F0.1,渔获量小于最大可持续产量,资源量大于目标参考点Bmsy,资源状况良好,未遭受过度捕捞。在基准方案下,最大可持续产量为142.9万吨,维持最大可持续产量的资源量为214.7万吨,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.682;在敏感性分析方案下,最大的可持续产量为152.5万吨,维持最大可持续产量的资源量为229.6万吨,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.691。决策分析和风险分析表明,当捕获率设定为0.3以下时,资源能够得到较好的养护,资源崩溃的可能性很低。将捕获率设定在0.3左右是最适的管理策略,此时的持续产量为99万吨左右

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