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IPCC气候情景下全球海平面长期趋势变化

, PP. 29-38

Keywords: 气候变化,海平面上升,CCSM3,IPCCSRESA2情景,比容

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Abstract:

利用CCSM3(CommunityClimateSystemModelversion3)气候系统模式模拟20世纪海平面变化,在IPCCSRESA2(IPCC,2001)情景假设下预测21世纪全球海平面长期趋势变化。模拟显示20世纪海平面上升约4.0cm,且存在0.0048mm/a2的加速度,这个结果仅为热盐比容的贡献。在A2情景假设下,21世纪海平面上升存在很大的区域特征,呈纬向带状分布;总体上北冰洋上升大,南大洋高纬度海区上升小,大西洋上升值比太平洋的大;整个21世纪全球平均比容海平面上升了约30cm,且呈加速上升的趋势。同时发现,中深层水温度和盐度变化对区域比容海平面变化具有重要贡献。北太平洋增暖主要集中在上层700m以内,而北大西洋的增暖可达2500m的深度,南大洋南极绕极流海区热盐变化则是发生在整个深度。

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