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海-气CO2通量实测数据通量计算中误差传递模拟与敏感性分析

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.04.008, PP. 64-71

Keywords: 海-气CO2通量,MonteCarlo方法,误差传递,敏感性分析

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Abstract:

海-气CO2通量估算模型中参数的可靠性是决定模型可靠性的重要因素,也决定了模型估算结果的可靠性,因此开展海-气CO2通量计算模型中误差传递规律与敏感性分析,对模型参数端元因子的误差控制,提高模型预测精度和降低不确定性十分重要。但由于模型中参数众多,且各种参数间彼此相互影响,使得误差传递过程与敏感性分析十分复杂困难。本文在海-气界面CO2通量观测建模过程详细分析的基础上,以海-气界面CO2分压差的经典通量计算模型为基础,以实测数据通量计算过程为例,针对模型中的参数变量,在假设参数变量的误差正态分布的前提下,利用MonteCarlo手段分析各参数变量的误差在模型中的传递规律,并将单因子扰动试验法用于海-气界面CO2通量建模的参数敏感性分析。模拟和分析结果表明:CO2通量计算过程中误差经模型传递后的分布规律存在正态分布、指数分布等多种形式;气体交换系数对通量计算结果的敏感性最大,通量估算中的风速和表层海水温度是必须进行精度控制的关键参数。

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