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湖泊科学  2011 

评价漓江健康的RIVPACS预测模型研究

DOI: 10.18307/2011.0112

Keywords: 底栖动物,河流健康评价,预测模型,生物评价,RIVPACS模型,漓江

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Abstract:

RIVPACS类河流健康评价模型是广泛应用的河流健康评价工具.利用漓江流域48个样点的底栖动物和环境数据,按照建立RIVPACS模型的方法和步骤,开展预测模型试点研究.48个样点中有32个参照样点,随机选取其中27个用于模型构建.余下的5个参照样点、10个轻至中度干扰样点和6个严重干扰样点用于模型验证.首先通过Bray-Curtis系数将27个参照样点分成3组,然后通过判别分析获得可最佳解释3个参照点组中底栖动物组成的5个环境变量,即溪流的平均流速、宽深比、水温、底质类型I(小于2mm)和Ⅱ(2-8mm)用于模型计算.通过建立的预测模型计算各样点的期望值(E)、观察值(0)和O/E比值.27个建模参照样点与5个验证的参照样点O/E平均值无显著差异,与10个轻至中度干扰点和6个严重干扰样点皆有显著差异,lO个轻至中度干扰样点与6个严重干扰样点间也有显著差异.说明已建立的模型可靠性好.建议深入开展RIVPACS类预测模型的研究和应用示范,为我国水环境和水资源保护与可持续利用提供科学的决策依据。

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