全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
湖泊科学  2003 

长江流域夏季降水与气温百年尺度变化及近期趋势

DOI: 10.18307/2003.sup12

Keywords: 世纪尺度,气候变化,趋势,地表蒸发,径流,洪水,长江流域

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

在最近的30a里,中国长江流域夏季洪水频繁,直接影响该流域经济发展和生态环境在致力于解决洪水灾害和努力减轻其影响的同时,我们常面临如下三个问题:洪水频繁发生的原因,将来几十年的洪水频率将如何变化,还会这样频繁吗?本文将从局部气候的自然变化规律中来试图回答这三个问题.文中报告主要结果指出:长江流域夏季降水具有一个明显的自然尺度的变化,且该变化最近由一个偏干的气候态(从1910年到(30年代末期)转化为一个偏湿的气候态(自60年代末以来).伴随着这种变化,长江流域夏季降水表现出增加趋势(平均增加率为30mm/10a),夏季地表水蒸发呈现出减少趋势(平均减少率为10mm/10a),以及这两种作用共同造成的地表水增加和洪水频繁.由于目前偏湿的气候态将持续,预计在今后10-20a里这些变化以及相联系的频繁洪水的趋势将在长江流域持续.

References

[1]  2 Jiang T, Shi Y. Global climatic warming, the Yangtze floods and potential loss. Advance in Earth Sciences, 2003,18(2):276-284
[2]  3 Nitta T, Hu Z. Summer climate variability in China and its association with 500hPa height and tropical convection. J Meteor Soc,1996, 74:425-445
[3]  5 Peking University, Central Meteorological Institute, Nanking University. The drought and flood charts of China from 1470 to 1979. Beijing:Atlas Press, 1981:332
[4]  6 Wang S W, Zhao Z C. Droughts and floods in China, 1470-1979. In:T M L, Wigley M J, Ingrashmn, Eds:Climate and History. Cambridge University Press, 1981:171-288
[5]  7 Qian W, Hu Q, Zhu Y. et al. Centennial-scale dry-wet variations in East Asia. Climate Dynamics, 2003,21:77-89
[6]  8 Hu R J, Jiang F Q, WiMig Y. A climate shift from dry to wet in Xinjiang, China. Dry-Land Geography, 2002, 25:194-200
[7]  1 Shi Y, Shen Y, Li D, et al. An Assessment of the Issues of Climatic Shift from Warm-dry to Warm-wet in Northwest China. Beijing:Meteorology Press, 2003:124
[8]  4 Hu Q, Feng S. A southward migration of centennial scale variations of drought/flood in eastern China and the western United States. J Climate, 2001, 14:1323-1328
[9]  9 Hameed S, Yeh WM, Li M T, et al. An dialysis of periodicities, 1983 in the 1470 to 1974 Beijing precipitation record. Geophys Res Lett, 10:436-439
[10]  10 Qui X, Cao Y, Maio Q, et al. Methods for calculating annual surface evaporation using routine weather stations data. Science in China(Series D), 2003, 46:281-288
[11]  11 Allen R Q Pereira L S, Raes D, et al. Crop evapotranspiration:Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO irrigation and tkainage paper, 1998, No. 56, FAO, Rome:300
[12]  12 Shi Y, Zhu J, Xie Z, et al. Prediction and prevention of the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze River Delta and its adjacenteas. Science in China(Series D), 2000,(4):412-422

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133