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湖泊科学  2003 

小冰期气候变化主控因子的模拟试验

DOI: 10.18307/2003.0402

Keywords: 小冰期,太阳辐射,火山灰,植被,模拟

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Abstract:

小冰期是距今最近,特征最明显的寒冷气候事件,对于研究世纪尺度气候变化具有重要意义.过去的研究结果认为,太阳活动和火山活动的变化是小冰期气候变化的主要原因.本文应用AGCM+SSiB模式分别试验了植被、太阳辐射和火山活动变化对小冰期温度、降水的影响,发现下垫面植被变化对小冰期温度变化影响的量级与太阳辐射和火山活动变化的作用相当,对降水的影响甚至超过太阳活动和火山活动变化的作用,说明对于世纪尺度的气候变化而言,下垫面植被的反馈作用不可忽略.这对于深入理解小冰期气候变化的机理具有启迪作用,同时也为世纪尺度气候变化研究与气候情景预测提供了新的思路和方法.

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