OALib Journal期刊
Markov模型在合肥市疟疾发病趋势预测中的应用
, PP. 819-821
Keywords: Markov模型 ,疟疾 ,发病率 ,预测
Abstract:
目的探讨Markov模型预测合肥市疟疾发病率的可行性,为全市的疟疾防治工作提供科学依据。方法应用Excel软件对合肥市1990~2010年疟疾发病率建立Markov模型,预测合肥市2011~2012年的疟疾发病率。结果利用建成的Markov模型预测合肥市2011~2012年疟疾发病率均在1/10万~3.5/10万之间,而2011年和2012年实际发病率分别为0.13/10万和0/10万,预测结果与实际情况不符。结论本次模拟的Markov模型不适合预测合肥市疟疾的发病情况。
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