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基于系统动力学的城市抗震防灾能力评估

Keywords: 城市抗震防灾,系统动力学,因果反馈,动态模拟

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Abstract:

为解决城市抗震防灾系统由于本身非线性、复杂性、动态发展性、自组织性等特点致使其难以量化评估的问题,实现依据地震时序的城市抗震防灾能力的动态评估,提出了基于系统动力学的城市抗震防灾能力动态评估模型.首先,回顾总结了城市抗震防灾相关研究的进展,总结了以往城市抗震防灾相关研究的不足;其次,给出了基于系统动力学城市抗震防灾能力评估研究的基本理论及框架;最后,运用系统动力学构建了震前重点片区的人员紧急疏散、震后薄弱区短期疏散及震后人员伤亡和救援3个模型,通过模型模拟为城市抗震防灾规划的具体实施提供了一定参考依据,且证实了系统动力在城市抗震防灾方面的实用性.

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