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基于云理论的三时估计法计算行程时间可靠度

Keywords: 城市交通,行程时间可靠度,云理论,三时估计法

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Abstract:

为了估计城市道路在随机和模糊条件下的行程时间可靠度,提出了基于云理论的三时估计法.修正了无确定度逆向云算法,假定路段行程时间服从单峰点在m,端点在a和b的Beta分布,对形状参数进行了估计.运用基于云理论的三时估计法求出路段行程时间的期望值、方差和超熵,进而得到路径的行程时间正态云数字特征,根据数字特征对路径进行了排序,并求出了路径、OD和路网的行程时间可靠度.最后,通过一个算例验证了该方法的有效性,说明三时估计法结合云理论可以有效解决不确定条件下的行程时间可靠度问题,为城市交通规划和管理提供技术参考和支持.

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