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北京市公交客运显性需求预测分析

Keywords: 北京公交,需求量预测,特征分析

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Abstract:

根据近9a来的数据,以双指数平滑法,估计了北京市公交客运需求数量近期和中期的变动趋势及需求.研究发现:1)未来5a的显性公交客运需求总量平均为50亿人次,年均动态自适应客运需求增量为0.6~1.4亿人次;2)北京市公共交通客运需求量对经济增长、常住人口总量增长和旅游人数的变动等因素不敏感;3)单纯的公交客运价格变动不足以从根本上改变潜在公交消费者的消费倾向.需要进一步考察对于公交财政补贴的传递渠道,并结合路权的再配置方案,以便更好地改善公交消费环境,从而有效刺激公共交通客运需求量的提高.

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