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分对数模型在城市快速路交通状态预测中的应用

Keywords: 多项K-Logit指数模型,多源数据融合,交通状态预测

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Abstract:

在分析相邻检测器截面间交通流的高度非线性和时空耦合性特点的基础上,结合上海市某一快速路段环型线圈检测器数据和浮动车GPS数据,采用数据挖掘技术提取检测器截面间的交通流时空数据.运用多项式分对数模型对所提取的时空数据进行统计分类分析,依托特征参数建立交通状态多项K-Logit指数模型.结合快速路匝道控制措施,采用VISSIMCOM与VC++6.0为仿真平台,对实验数据进行仿真,结果表明:分对数模型对交通状态的预测精度能达到93.65%,行程时间平均缩减了17.1%,车辆延误降低了11.9%,行车速度提高了14.6%.

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