舆论的寡头化铁律：“沉默的螺旋”理论适用边界的再思考
The Oligarchy Tendency of Public Opinion: A Rethinking on Applicable Boundary of the Spiral of Silence

摘要 “沉默的螺旋”实质上揭示了舆论的“寡头化”倾向，诠释了舆论的“不完美”而不是“非理性”状态。“沉默的螺旋”可以分为自上而下和自下而上两个方向，真正意义上的“反沉默的螺旋”指的是“意见的自由市场”下舆论的多元化呈现。中国的网络环境为“沉默的螺旋”理论提供了更为适宜的土壤，如意见气候的感知更为明显、公共事件的道德性突出，情感动员效应强大，议题的“序列化”报道等。因此，从原始文本出发，重读诺依曼的“沉默的螺旋”理论，审视该理论引发的种种争议，思考它在不同社会、文化情境下的适应性，具有重要意义。
The theory of Silence Spiral reveals public opinion tendency of “oligarchs” in essence, explains the public opinion’s “imperfection” rather than "irrational" state. The spiral can be divided into two directions, top-down and bottom-up. The true sense of "Anti-silence Spiral” refers to the diversity of opinions within the “opinions of free market”. The network environment of China is suitable for the "Silence Spiral Theory”, for the more apparent perception of the opinion climate, the strong morality of public events, the powerful emotional mobilization, the extremes of public opinion and the outstanding phenomenon of populism. Therefore, thinking about its adaptability in different social and cultural situations, is of great significance to reread Neumann’s “Silence Spiral Theory”