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基于盲数理论与GIS的小江流域吸附态磷污染负荷模拟研究

Keywords: 三峡库区,非点源污染模型,不确定性信息,吸附态磷,盲数

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Abstract:

根据三峡库区小江流域水文、地理和非点源污染等特点,通过分析引起流域吸附态污染负荷年际变化的主要因素,提出了流域土壤侵蚀模数、输沙模数的动态计算方法。鉴于与吸附态污染负荷有关的流域降雨、土壤、地形、植被、水土保持、泥沙输移比等因素具有空间不确定性的特点,构建了基于盲数理论的非点源吸附态磷污染负荷动态分布模型。应用所构建的模型,借助GIS技术,模拟和定量计算了小江流域1997—2007年各年的土壤侵蚀模数和吸附态磷负荷量。模拟结果表明,降雨侵蚀力因子和地表径流量是流域内吸附态磷负荷年际变化的重要因素;而吸附态非点源磷负荷的空间变化与土地利用类型关系密切,不同土地利用类型输出磷负荷的大小依次为:旱田及混合地、草地、水田、林地和城镇用地。通过验证表明,所建模型合理,运用盲数理论来研究流域非点源吸附态负荷可行。

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