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基于系统动力学模型的工业固废管理政策作用仿真

Keywords: 工业固体废弃物,系统动力学,管理政策

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Abstract:

基于系统动力学(SD)原理,首先对工业固体废弃物管理政策与其他各要素间的相互关系进行了分析,构建了因果关系图及流图;在此基础上建立了系统动力学(SD)方程,定义了激励因子和约束因子的概念,明确了其与系统其他各要素间的关系及相关参数的确定方法;最后以辽宁省为例进行实证研究,预测了辽宁省未来工业固体废弃物的产生量、综合利用量、处置量、排放量、贮存量、累积贮存量的变化趋势,对政府的激励和约束政策的变化对工业固体废弃物不同处理方式的作用效果进行了仿真。研究成果对政府科学制定政策,提高我国工业固体废弃物管理的研究水平具有重要理论与现实意义。

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