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基于证据推理的可靠度近似计算方法

, PP. 128-132

Keywords: 可靠度,失效概率,计算方法,证据理论

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Abstract:

提出了一种基于证据推理的可靠度近似计算方法。定义结构失效的命题为F,通过证据推理求出F的信度Bel(F)和似真度pl(F),Bel(F)和pl(F)的均值可作为失效概率的近似值。研究了该方法的数值计算方法,给出了具体的计算步骤,并分析了影响计算精度与计算效率的关键因素。研究表明:随机变量分布区间的等分数k越大则失效概率的计算精度越高;而随机变量个数n和k越大,计算效率则越低。开发了用该方法计算可靠度的专用程序,并通过应用实例验证了该方法的正确性和有效性。

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