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禽蛋孵化过程组合预测研究

DOI: 10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2012.12.038, PP. 211-216

Keywords: 禽蛋,孵化,灰色预测,联想记忆神经网络,组合预测

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Abstract:

针对孵化过程是一个具有高度非线性、大滞后、时变特性且强耦合性的农业生产过程,提出了一种基于灰色预测和联想记忆神经网络的组合预测方法。该模型首先利用灰色预测模型和联想记忆神经网络分别对焦炉禽蛋孵化过程温、湿度进行预测,然后采用方差-协方差优选组合预测法对2种单一模型的预测结果进行加权集成,以获得较为准确的预测精度,实现孵化过程温度和湿度的有效预测。运行结果表明,组合预测模型均方根相对偏差为0.9%。

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