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电网技术  2010 

电力市场中考虑灵活性措施的发电投资决策分析

, PP. 151-155

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Abstract:

电力市场改革使发电投资面临了众多不确定性和潜在的市场化风险,这对发电投资的灵活性提出了较高的要求。考虑电力市场环境下发电投资灵活性的特点,提出了发电投资决策的灵活性分析框架,并以扩展的净现值作为灵活性策略评估指标,应用实物期权理论对投资策略进行评估。分别对乐观、一般和悲观的市场环境中燃料成本和电价等不确定性因素进行模拟,分析各投资阶段的项目收益波动情况。针对基本投资、扩容投资和放弃投资等3种灵活性策略,构建了市场环境下考虑灵活性措施的二叉树模型,并对灵活性策略的期权价值和扩展的净现值进行评估。以一个300MW的燃气蒸汽联合循环电厂容量投资为例,比较分析考虑灵活性措施前后的净现值,验证了该模型的有效性和合理性。

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