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电网技术  2010 

应用聚类算法和混沌理论的短期负荷概率性区间预测

, PP. 65-69

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Abstract:

将聚类算法和混沌时间序列方法相结合,提出了一种短期负荷概率性区间预测方法。该方法采用聚类算法在相空间中寻找当前相点的多个相似状态,以避免如何选取相似状态和相似状态个数的问题;根据不同相似状态确定性预测结果的最大值和最小值构造预测区间,结合历史预测误差的统计规律计算区间对应的概率置信水平。采用我国北方某电网负荷数据对算法进行了测试,分析了聚类阈值对相似状态个数、区间中值、区间长度的影响,预测结果表明了该方法的有效性。

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