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电网技术  2015 

采用横纵向误差平移插值修正的风电预测精度改善方法

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.10.012, PP. 2758-2765

Keywords: wind,power,forecasting,phase,error,level,error,probability,and,statistics,translating,and,interpolating,correction

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Abstract:

目前风电预测功率精度偏低,评估指标常用纵向误差,很少针对横向误差(延迟或超前时间)进行统计。提出了基于横、纵向误差平移修正的风电预测精度改善方法,给出用于风电功率预测的不变趋势功率持续时间的概念,并将风电场日前功率预测曲线和实际功率曲线划分为不变趋势功率增加段、降低段和保持段3种模式。建立了各不变趋势持续时间的计算模型,采用概率统计法获得预测时间值与实际时间值之间的偏差值及滞后或超前方向,利用平移法和插值法联合横纵向误差修正日前功率预测误差。应用上述方法对新疆某地区风电功率预测曲线进行仿真计算,结果如下该地区风电功率预测横向误差为3.78h,方向为超前,纵向绝对误差值为40.05MW;采用平移插值修正后,横向误差值为2.56h,

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