全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
电网技术  2006 

基于分形理论的电力负荷持久性分析及预测

, PP. 84-88

Keywords: 分形理论,持久性,负荷预测

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

讨论了非线性电力负荷持久性问题,并在持久性区间利用分形插值算法进行了短期负荷预测。运用分形理论中的重标极差分析方法构造了电力负荷分析模型,揭示了负荷波动变化的持久性,表现出了隐藏于随机性之后的有序性,说明负荷特性是可以延伸的。由于在持久性区间内负荷之间是紧密联系的,因此可利用分形拼贴定理与分形插值算法求取与负荷历史记录相近吸引子的迭代函数系统,进而实现高精度的日电力负荷预测。

References

[1]  李天云,刘自发,戴展波,等.电力系统负荷的分形特性研究[J].东北电力学院学报,1999,19(4):11-15.
[2]  Li Tianyun,Liu Zifa,Dai Zhanbo,et al.Research on fractal properties of power load[J].Journal of Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering,1999,19(4):11-15(in Chinese).
[3]  李翔,乔艳芬.分形理论下的电力负荷特性分析[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(10):67-70.
[4]  Li Xiang,Qiao Yanfen.Analysis of the characteristics of power load based on fractal theory[J].China Journal of Management Science,2005,13(10):67-70(in Chinese).
[5]  李金颖,牛东晓.非线形季节型电力负荷灰色组合预测研究[J].电网技术,2003,27(5):26-28.
[6]  Li Jinying,Niu Dongxiao.Study on gray combined forecasting of nonlinear seasonal power load[J].Power System Technology, 2003,27(5):26-28(in Chinese).
[7]  张伏生,刘芳,赵文彬,等.灰色Verhulst模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用[J].电网技术,2003,27(5):37-39.
[8]  Zhang Fusheng,Liu Fang,Zhao Wenbin,et al.Application of grey verhulst model in middle and long term load forecasting[J].Power System Technology,2003,27(5):37-39(in Chinese).
[9]  赵宏伟,任震,黄雯莹.基于周期自回归模型的短期负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,1997,17(5):348-351.
[10]  Zhao Hongwei,Ren Zhen,Huang Wenying.A short term load forecasting method based on PAR model[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,1997,17(5):348-351(in Chinese).
[11]  杨正瓴,田勇,林孔元.短期负荷预测“双周期加混沌”法中的多步法与气象因子的使用[J].电网技术,2004,28(12):20-24.
[12]  Yang Zhengling,Tian Yong,Lin Kongyuan.Application of multi-step regression considering climate factors in method synthesizing double periods and chaotic components to short term load forecasting [J].Power System Technology,2004,28(12):20-24(in Chinese).
[13]  樊福梅,梁平.基于分形的社会总用电量及其构成预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(11):91-94.
[14]  Fan Fumei,Liang Ping.Forecasting about national electric consumption and it’s constitution based on the fractal[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2004,24(11):91-94(in Chinese).
[15]  胡屏,柏军,兰华,等.基于分形理论的电力系统负荷几何特性研究[J].东北电力学院学报,2002,22(4):48-52.
[16]  Hu Ping,Bai Jun,Lan Hua,et al.Analysis of the power load’s character based on fractal theory[J].Journal of Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering,2002,22(4):48-52(in Chinese).
[17]  张林,刘先珊,阴和俊.基于时间序列的支持向量机在负荷预测中的应用[J].电网技术,2004,28(19):38-41.
[18]  Zhang Lin,Liu Xianshan,Yin Hejun.Application of support vector machines based on time sequence in power system load forecasting[J].Power System Technology,2004,28(19):38-41(in Chinese).
[19]  Toyoda J,Chen M,Inoue Y.An application of state estimation to short-term forecasting[J].IEEE Trans on PAS,1970,89(7):1678-1688.
[20]  谢开贵,李春燕,周家启.基于神经网络的负荷组合预测模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,22(7):85-89.
[21]  Xie Kaigui,Li Chunyan,Zhou Jiaqi.Research of the combination forecasting model for load based on artificial neural network [J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2002,22(7):85-89(in Chinese).
[22]  周佃民,管晓宏,孙婕,等.基于神经网络的电力系统短期负荷研究[J].电网技术,2002,26(2):10-14.
[23]  Zhou Dianmin,Guan Xiaohong,Sun Jie,et al.A short-term load forecasting system based on BP artificial neural network[J].Power System Technology,2002,26(2):10-14(in Chinese).
[24]  马建伟,张国立.人工鱼群神经网络在电力系统短期负荷预测中的应用[J].电网技术,2005,29(11):36-39.
[25]  Ma Jianwei,Zhang Guoli.Application of artificial fish-swarm neural network in short-term load forecasting of power system[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(11):36-39(in Chinese).
[26]  唐立春,李光熹,熊曼丽.基于分形的电力系统负荷预测[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,1999,11(4):21-24.
[27]  Tang Lichun,Li Guangxi,Xiong Manli.Based on the fractal theory new method of power system load forecasting[J].Electrical Power System and Automation,1999,11(4):21-24(in Chinese).
[28]  李天云,刘自发.电力系统负荷的混沌特性及预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(11):36-40.
[29]  Li Tianyun,Liu Zifa.The chaotic property of power load and its forecasting[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2000,20(11):36-40(in Chinese).
[30]  权先璋,蒋传文,张勇传.电力负荷的混沌预测方法[J].华中理工大学学报,2000,28(7):92-94.
[31]  Quan Xianzhang,Jiang Chuangwen,Zhang Yongchuan.Power load forecasting based on chaotic theory[J].Journal of Huazhong Univ. of Sci. & Tech,2000,28(7):92-94(in Chinese).
[32]  Hurst H E.Long-term storage of reservoirs[J].Trans. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng,1951,116:772-785.
[33]  江赛春.有界分形市场假说与中国股市的实证研究[D].北京:北京大学,2002.
[34]  李翔,杨淑霞,乔艳芬.产品市场潜力强度与长程记忆力研究[J].中国管理科学,2004,10(12):103-106.
[35]  Li Xiang,Yang Shuxia,Qiao Yanfen.Study on the potential intensity and long-term memory of product market[J].China Journal of Management Science,2004,10(12):103-106(in Chinese).
[36]  史永东.上海证券市场的分形结构[J].预测,2000,5:78-80.
[37]  Shi Yongdong.Fractal structure of stock returns in Shanghai’s stock market[J].Forecasting,2000,5:78-80(in Chinese).
[38]  徐国栋,邱世远.中国股市分形现象与非周期循环[J].财经论坛,2004,2:89-90.
[39]  Xu Guodong,Qiu Shiyuan.China stock fractal phenomenon and non- cyclical circulation[J].Finance and Economics Forum,2004,2:89-90(in Chinese).
[40]  薛万磊.电力负荷分形预测方法研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2004,6.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133