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电网技术  2009 

用于小水电地区负荷预测的两阶段还原法

, PP. 87-92

Keywords: 电力系统,负荷预测,网供负荷,小水电,两阶段还原法

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Abstract:

影响电力负荷预测的因素较多,其中小水电出力的强不确定性对多小水电地区负荷预测准确率的影响尤其明显。文章首先分析了小水电发电负荷的特性及主要相关因素,根据小水电的规律性,提出了小水电负荷预测的有效方法。考虑到不同负荷成分的差异性,提出了多小水电地区负荷预测的两阶段还原法,将网供负荷分解为全社会负荷与小水电负荷,根据各自特点选择不同的适合的方法预测,再还原为网供负荷预测结果。实例验证了文中方法的正确性和有效性。文中的工作对于多小水电地区网供负荷或小水电负荷预测具有重要现实意义与实用价值。

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