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电网技术  2009 

基于新鲜度函数和预测有效度的模糊自适应变权重中长期电力负荷组合预测

, PP. 103-107

Keywords: 中长期负荷预测,组合预测,新鲜度函数,模糊变权重,预测有效度

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Abstract:

针对传统电力负荷组合预测模型中出现的负权重、没有区别对待不同历史时段的误差对权重的影响以及变权重计算方法较为复杂等问题,文中提出一种基于新鲜度函数和预测有效度的模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型,并应用到中长期电力负荷组合预测中。利用预测有效度进行模型筛选,利用新鲜度函数体现预测中的“近大远小”原则,利用滚动时间域窗口的方法实现变权。算例表明,文中提出的组合预测模型预测精度较高,实用性强。

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