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电网技术  2013 

考虑参数不确定的电网可靠性概率分布特征

, PP. 2165-2172

Keywords: 可靠性,概率密度函数,参数不确定性

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Abstract:

从概率分布角度刻画电网可靠性的随机分布规律,并对概率分布特征受参数不确定性的影响开展研究,克服了常规电网可靠性评估中在参数不确定性影响研究上仅仅囿于期望值指标的缺陷。推导了参数不确定时元件故障前工作时间和故障后修复时间的边缘概率分布,为规避边缘分布函数过于复杂且难以解析计算的障碍,采用了数值积分对其进行离散化表征,并据此改进传统序贯蒙特卡洛算法,实现了计入参数不确定影响的电网可靠性指标的边缘概率分布计算,探索了参数不确定的电网可靠性概率分布特征研究的新思路。同时采用双循环蒙特卡洛仿真与所提方法在计算效率和计算时间上进行对比验证。通过对RBTS和IEEE-RTS79系统的评估分析,验证了所提方法的正确性和实用性。

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