Giebel G, Landberg G, Kariniotakis G.State-of-the-art on methods and software tools for short-term, prediction of wind energy production[C]//European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition.Madrid, Spain:IEEE, 2003:40-47.
Lange M.On the uncertainty of wind power predictions-Analysis of the forecast accuracy and statistical distribution of errors[J].Transactions of the ASME-N-Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, 2005, 127(2):177-184.
[5]
Lange M, Heinemann D.Relating the uncertainty of short-term wind speed predictions to meteorological situations with methods from synoptic climatology[C]//Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition.Madrid:IEEE, 2003.
[6]
Nielsen H A, Madsen H, Nielsen T S.Using quantile regression to extend an existing wind power forecasting system with probabilistic forecasts[J].Wind Energy, 2006, 9(1-2):95-108.
[7]
丁士晟.地方模式输出统计预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社, 1989:60-81.
[8]
中国风能协会.2012年中国风电装机容量统计[R].北京:中国风能协会, 2011.
[9]
迟永宁, 刘燕华, 王伟胜, 等.风电接入对电力系统的影响[J].电网技术, 2007, 31(3):77-81.Chi Yongning, Liu Yanhua, Wang Weisheng, et al.Study on impact of wind power integration on power system[J].Power System Technology, 2007, 31(3):77-81(in Chinese).
[10]
Carney J G, Cunningham P, Bhagwan U.Confidence and prediction intervals for neural network ensembles[C]//International Joint Conference on Neural Networks.Washington:IEEE, 1999:1215-1218.
[11]
Hodge B, Milligan M.Wind power forecasting error distributions over multiple timescales[C]//Power and Energy Society General Meeting.Detroit, Michigan, United State:USDOE, 2011:1-11.
[12]
Bludszuweit H, Domínguez-Navarro J A, Llombart A.Statistical analysis of wind power forecast error[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2008, 23(3):983-991.
[13]
刘永前, 史洁, 杨勇平, 等.基于预测误差分布特性的风电场短期功率预测不确定性研究[J].太阳能学报, 2012, 33(12):2179-2184.Liu Yongqian, Shi Jie, Yang Yongping, et al.Uncertainty analysis of short term wind power forecasting based on error characteristics statistics[J].Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2012, 33(12):2179-2184(in Chinese).
[14]
韩爽, 刘永前, 杨勇平, 等.风电场超短期功率预测及不确定性分析[J].太阳能学报, 2011, 32(8):1251-1256.Han Shuang, Liu Yongqian, Yang Yongping, et al.Uncertainty analysis of short term wind power forecasting based on error characteristics statistics[J].Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2011, 32(8):1251-1256(in Chinese).
[15]
王铮, 王伟胜, 刘纯, 等.基于风过程方法的风电功率预测结果不确定性估计 [J].电网技术, 2013, 37(1):242-247.Wang Zheng, Wang Weisheng, Liu Chun, et al.Uncertainty estimation of wind power prediction result based on wind process method[J].Power System Technology, 2013, 37(1):242-247(in Chinese).
[16]
Pinson P, Kariniotakis G.On-line assessment of prediction risk for wind power production forecasts[J].Wind Energy, 2004, 7(2):119-132.
[17]
Lilliefors H W.On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality with mean and variance unknown[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1967, 62(318):399-402.
[18]
姚立忠, 李太福, 易军, 等.神经网络模型的透明化及输入变量约简[J].计算机科学, 2012, 39(9):247-251.Yao Lizhong, Li Taifu, Yi Jun, et al.Visualize black-box of NN model and its application in dimensionality reduction[J].Computer Science, 2012, 39(9):1251-1256(in Chinese).