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电网技术  2010 

自适应变系数粒子群和径向基神经网络在短期电价预测中的应用

, PP. 98-106

Keywords: 电价预测,粒子群优化算法,径向基神经网络,混合优化算法,泛化能力

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Abstract:

分析了传统的粒子群优化(particleswarmoptimization,PSO)算法和径向基(radialbasisfunction,RBF)神经网络的优缺点,提出一种自适应变系数粒子群优化算法(adaptivevariablecoefficientsparticleswarmoptimizer,AVCPSO)。该算法与RBF神经网络结合形成自适应变系数粒子群–径向基(AVCPSO-RBF)神经网络混合优化算法。基于此优化算法,建立了短期电价预测模型,并利用贵州电网历史数据进行短期电价预测。仿真计算结果表明,AVCPSO-RBF混合优化算法在短期电价预测中优于传统RBF神经网络法和PSO-RBF神经网络方法,克服了上述2种方法的缺点,改善了RBF神经网络的泛化能力,具有输出稳定性好、预测精度高、收敛速度快等特点,使用该方法得到的各日预测电价的平均百分比误差可控制在2%以内,平均绝对误差最大值为1.652RMB/MW·h。

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