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电网技术  2014 

序贯蒙特卡洛方法在电力系统可靠性评估中的应用差异分析

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.05.010, PP. 1189-1195

Keywords: 电力系统可靠性评估,序贯蒙特卡洛法,状态持续时间采样,等时间间隔采样,修正系数

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Abstract:

分析比较了元件状态持续时间采样(statedurationsampling,SDS)和等时间间隔采样(timeintervalsampling,TIS)2种常用序贯蒙特卡洛仿真方法在电力系统可靠性评估中的应用差异。针对SDS方法执行效率低但精度高,而TIS方法计算速度快但精度不足的特点,提出通过选择合适的采样间隔,并采用修正系数对与采样次数直接有关的电力不足持续时间(LOLD)指标进行修正,来改善TIS方法的仿真精度和计算速度。IEEE-RTS79测试系统的仿真结果验证了所提方法的有效性,并且表明修正后的TIS方法在系统故障率增加时效率优势更加明显。

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