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电网技术  2014 

考虑区间概率的发输电系统非精确可靠性评估

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.05.012, PP. 1203-1209

Keywords: 非精确可靠性,区间概率,发输电系统,区间层次分析,逐次优化

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Abstract:

当设备缺乏失效统计数据时,描述其可靠性的随机变量的概率信息是非完整的,传统可靠性评估无法处理非完整的概率信息。区间概率是处理非完整概率信息的有效方法,区间可靠性指标的宽度能体现概率信息的完整程度。根据专家经验,采用基于区间层析分析方法的区间概率计算模型来获得区间概率,建立包含区间概率的发输电系统非精确可靠性评估模型,提出高效的逐次优化算法求可靠性指标上下界,最后通过算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性。

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