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电网技术  2014 

基于预测误差不确定性的规模化间歇式电源机组组合研究

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.09.022, PP. 2455-2460

Keywords: 机组组合,间歇式电源,预测误差,机会规划约束,Monte-Carlo模拟,二进制粒子群算法

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Abstract:

针对间歇式电源出力和负荷需求预测的不确定性,引入预测误差的不确定,将系统中的不确定变量处理为一个总的不确定系统预测误差,基于机会约束规划建立了考虑预测误差随机性的机组组合模型。此外,计及间歇式电源不同出力水平下预测误差分布不同的特性,在全面考虑预测误差的分布规律及其所导致的备用容量基础上,将考虑预测误差的机组组合问题精细化。以10机系统为例,采用基于随机模拟的粒子群算法求解,算例结果验证了上述模型和方法的有效性和实用性。

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