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电网技术  2014 

基于社会公共安全模型的大停电社会损失评估

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.11.004, PP. 2964-2971

Keywords: 社会公共安全,大停电事故,社会损失,参数选取

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Abstract:

如何评估大停电的综合损失是政府和电网企业重点关注的问题。在社会公共安全模型的基础上,建立了大停电社会综合评估指标体系及其评估模型,并分别从社会人员伤亡损失、财产损失及延误损失等方面进行了量化评估。对模型参数进行了理论分析和取值优化。结合我国电网及国家发展水平情况,以某区域为例,计算分析了大停电综合损失结果,并与国内外大停电损失统计结果相对比,验证了该评估模型的正确性和有效性。

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