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电网技术  2014 

计及风电和负荷不确定性的日调度计划节能效益概率评估方法

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.04.021, PP. 959-966

Keywords: 节能调度,概率评估,机组随机状态,Benders分解,Monte,Carlo仿真

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Abstract:

针对目前节能调度中确定性的节能效益评估方法不能满足风电出力和负荷功率随机环境下节能管理的需要,基于MonteCarlo随机模拟的方法提出了日调度计划节能效益概率评估方法。该方法首先采用拉丁超立方采样技术进行风电最大出力和节点负荷功率的随机状态模拟,然后建立了含网络安全约束和合同电量约束的日节能调度优化模型,来模拟火电机组的启停和出力状态以及风电机组出力状态。针对模型中含有大量整数变量和网络安全约束的特点,为提高求解效率,基于Benders原理将其分解成具有迭代机制的主问题和子问题求解。其中,主问题在引入起作用的整数变量辨识法对其降低求解规模后,采用CPLEX中的MILP求解器求解;子问题则解耦成24个小的子问题后,采用线性规划法求解。基于大量样本的反复抽样以及机组随机状态的模拟,最终实现了日调度计划节能效益概率评估。最后,以某省级电网为例验证了所提节能效益概率评估方法的有效性。

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