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电网技术  2015 

基于拟蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统可靠性评估

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.03.024, PP. 744-750

Keywords: 可靠性评估,蒙特卡罗,拟蒙特卡罗,低偏差点列

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Abstract:

建立在概率论与数理统计基础之上的传统可靠性评估方法不能准确反映重载条件下可控串补的接入对输电系统可靠性的影响。结合静态电压稳定中的P-V特性曲线、过负荷保护的动作阀值及停运概率随线路潮流变化的输电线路运行可靠性模型,从运行可靠性的角度提出了含串联补偿装置的输电线路运行可靠性模型,分析了串联补偿对输电线路停运概率随潮流变化曲线的影响。算例通过分析不同补偿度条件下的系统供电可用率,表明若线路长期处于重载运行,增加串联补偿环节可以提高系统的供电可靠性。

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